Are the Midterms Trump's Waterloo?

Ever since he came down that escalator at Trump Tower in New York on June 16, 2015, Donald Trump has dominated American politics.

It’s not only that he’s won the presidency twice and been nominated by the GOP three times. It’s not even that he’s been impeached twice (so far). Those are events. It’s deeper than that.

Donald Trump has changed our country. We aren’t going back.

Henry Kissinger understood Trump’s revolutionary impact on the US and the world order long before most people. After the 2016 presidential election, after Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton had sent shock waves around the globe, Kissinger told the Financial Times:

It is an amoral view of politics. Very Kissingerian. That doesn’t make it wrong.

In 2016, Kissinger had sensed the exhaustion of the post-World War II order, its fading relevance in the light of China’s rise and America’s overstretched resources. He saw in Trump a man like Caesar or Napoleon or Bismarck—ambitious men who seized on the weaknesses of the systems of their own times and who through sheer force of will knocked them down.

But Kissinger also saw in Trump’s strange and ferocious personality the steaming chaos and relentless deceit that make him very different from the others. Whatever else his rise to power represents, Trump has made our country more corrupt, more cruel, less trusting, dumber, weaker, and angrier. His impact on American life goes deep and will outlast him.

But history’s lesson is clear. These figures who have dominated the world stage for years seem while they are ascendant to be unstoppable. Until they are not.

And this, I believe, is where we are today.

Between now and Tuesday, expect to see a surge of claims that the election is a hoax or rigged. A recent survey found that 54% of Americans polled have believed at least one “election is rigged” claim.

If you’re reading Real Patriotism, you likely already have a strong sense of balance. But this surge of information (and misinformation) can feel overwhelming to all of us.

We need a way through the chaos and cacophony. And Ground News is that way, that tool to help sort fact from fiction, truth from rubbish.

Click the link. Take a look. It’s rare to see this many stories and angles on one topic collected into a single space, with clear context on where each outlet tends to lean — left, right or somewhere in between — plus each publication’s rating on factualness.

A lot will be thrown at all of us in the next few days, and probably after Election Day as well. A great way to prepare yourself against the bias and misinformation that will pour forth across media is to try out Ground News. Real Patriotism readers get 40% off the Vantage plan through my link: groundnews.com/moran

It is now impossible to deny, though the toadies in the Cabinet and White House will try: Donald Trump is in decline. He is obviously struggling physically, seemingly unable to walk in a straight line. Several times at recent rallies, he seems to have had some kind of vocal spasm. He falls asleep in public a lot.

Trump has always been desperate to be seen as a winner and he will never acknowledge in any moment anything but that he is triumphant.

Father Time, however, remains undefeated.

Physical decline doesn’t automatically end the influence of a dominant leader. Franklin Roosevelt was clearly in desperate health and dying in front of the country in 1945, yet when he finally did pass away, the long shadow of his politics and policies stretched across decades. Charles de Gaulle’s influence in France remains strong to this day.

But this feels different. Something is happening—not just to Trump. Something is happening to Trumpism.

I heard it in the anger of a voter in Ohio last week. “I voted for him three times!” she shouted, then quietly: “I feel like he let us down. And there's no other way to put that.”

And I heard it in Iowa, from farmers who are battered by Trump’s tariffs and Trump’s war.

It is the war that is breaking the spell, I think. War clarifies things in its desperate energies. It reveals character, especially in leaders.

And this war—a wretched, stupid, unfocused and un-thought-out war that Trump apparently intends to double-down on immediately after the election—this war has exposed Trump to the American people in irrevocable ways. He is winging it. He lies about it constantly and unpersuasively. He can’t find a way out of it—and so will likely walk away, maybe after some monstrous strike that allows him to declare a victory no one will believe in.

Trump’s war drove home a truth that most Americans now (at last) understand: He does not give a damn about you.

His ballroom? That he cares about. His arch? He will fight tooth and nail to get it built. His money? He wants more and more of it for him and his family and he is gleefully using the power of the office to line his pockets.

He thinks he can get away with anything.

But I believe come November 3rd—he’ll be stunned how far he’s fallen. He’ll blame Republican candidates and lash out at anyone in the party who tries to tell him the truth. But deep down, he will know. It’s over. Playtime is over. Peak Trump is over. It’s all downhill from here.

Here’s how to watch the midterms to see if a blue wave is coming—before the talking heads start arguing about what it all means.

First, watch two early canaries in the coal mine. Polls close at 6:00PM ET in:

Indiana’s 5th District: Republican Victoria Spartz faces Democrat J.D. Ford. Trump carried this district by roughly 17 points! The few polls here show a close race, but it’s still a reach for Democrats.

Kentucky’s 6th District: Republican Ralph Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo for the seat Andy Barr is leaving. Trump carried it by roughly 15 points! Right now, it’s a tossup. Dembo is a former Navy lawyer and federal prosecutor who also worked for Governor Andy Beshear. He says he resigned from the DOJ over its politicization under Trump, and he has centered his campaign on corruption and costs.

These districts are places Republicans are supposed to win while deciding where to have their victory dinner. If they’re struggling, pay attention. If Democrats actually win these seats, Republicans elsewhere may want to cancel dessert.

Watch the margins, not just the networks’ reluctance to call a winner.

An uncalled race can simply mean somebody hasn’t reported the votes yet. What matters is whether Republicans are running well behind their usual margins, with enough votes counted to tell us something.

Finally, turn to Texas. Most polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. James Talarico is challenging Ken Paxton for the Senate in a state Trump won by nearly 14 points just two years ago.

A Talarico victory would be a political earthquake. Combine it with Democratic breakthroughs in Indiana and Kentucky, and you have powerful evidence that something big is rolling across the country—and that Trump’s spell is breaking.

—Terry

P.S. I’ll be at Talarico Headquarters in Austin, TX, Election Night. More on that later.